1.
Russia
2.
China
3.
USA
4.
Western Europe
5.
Africa
6.
The Middle
East
7.
India and
Pakistan
8.
Korea and Japan
9.
Latin
America
10. The Arctic
They cover most of the world’s potential flash
points in the headlines today, as well as some that are still quiescent or
slowly building tension like a seismic fault. To flourish as a nation, it helps
if you have fertile plains, a temperate climate, navigable rivers, natural
harbours with access to the open seas, natural resources, and (a rarity)
friendly neighbours. Unless they sit on oil and gas reserves, large desert
regions don’t help; neither do mountains ranges, except when they straddle a
national border and offer protection against invasion.
Russia is vast. It is the largest country in
the world and covers almost twice the area of the United States. Last month I
flew from Japan’s northern island, Hokkaido, to Helsinki in Finland. and for 9
hours of the 10-hour flight we were looking out on Russian soil. Russia’s
northern coastline encircles nearly half of the Arctic Ocean. Our aerial view
was of a cold and sparsely-populated landscape. More than three-quarters of
Russia’s 110m people live in European Russia to the west of the Ural mountains, which
stretch 1000 miles from north to south. But Russia has several serious
handicaps. In addition to its declining birth-rate and its relatively small population
(just a third of that of the USA), it has no warm-water ports that don’t freeze
over in winter, unless you count Sevastapol, which was on lease from Ukraine until
Russia annexed Crimea and took full control. But even with Sevastapol its navy
still has to pass through the Black Sea and the Mediterranean to reach the
oceans of the world. The melting of the Arctic Ocean, however, and the consequent opening
of the North-West passage may change that.
Russia is vulnerable to attack from Europe. The
North European Plain that runs from France to the Urals has a pinch-point in
Poland, which explains why that poor country has been overrun so often, in both
directions, in European conflicts. By the time this corridor reaches the
Russian border, however, it is 2000 miles wide and therefore hard to defend, a
fact that has tempted adventurers to invade: the Swedes in 1708, Napoleon in
1812 and the Germans in both world wars in 1914 and 1941. They all discovered
to their cost that the supply lines to Moscow are very long and the Russian
winters treacherous. The Russians simply retreat to their capital and wait for
the weather and the hunger to take its toll on the enemy. Nevertheless, the loss of its
protective buffer: the Baltic states, Poland, East Germany after the collapse
of the Soviet Union was a severe blow both to its pride and its security, and
the weakening of NATO must surely be part of its long-term strategy,
This brief summary of Russia’s geopolitical
imperatives is typical of the analysis and thoughtful insight to be found in every
chapter of this rewarding book. In Chapter
2 for example we understand how China’s annexation of Tibet in 1950 gave it the
defensive line of the Himalayas against invasion from the south, we understand its
need to control the South China Sea, its reopening of the old Silk Road and the
soft power it exerts through aid and investment in Africa and Latin America in
search of natural resources and influence. In Chapter 3 we learn how the
economic development of the USA depended on the Mississippi and other navigable
rivers, on its large areas of fertile land, its temperate climate and its
unrestricted access to two great oceans, the Atlantic and the Pacific, across
which to deploy its navy and its trade. And so on.
My pleasure in reading Prisoners of Geography may be partly due to my previous ignorance.
But if you are fascinated by the realpolitik of our comity of nation states and
feel you might have some gaps in your knowledge of the
geographical and historical forces at play, then fire up Amazon, or better, visit
your local bookshop and get your copy today.
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